British holidaymakers face a summer travel lottery amid the global jet fuel crisis – with some airlines better placed than others to dodge anticipated flight chaos.
A Daily Mail investigation has found passengers’ chances of disruption could depend heavily on the airline they booked with.
Our analysis of ten major carriers used by UK travellers found that Jet2 tops airline resilience rankings – while Turkish Airlines languishes at the foot of the index, having already suspended 23 international routes.
The warning of mass flight cancellations and disruption comes amid fears of crippling fuel shortages linked to the war in Iran and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for oil tankers.
Jet fuel prices doubled from roughly $100 (£73) per barrel in late February to around $200 (£146) per barrel in early April following disruption caused by the conflict in the Middle East.
The research, carried out with aviation intelligence platform My Flight Path, ranked key airlines on fuel hedging and schedule stability.
Fuel hedging means airlines lock in future fuel prices in advance. Usually, it is a dry accounting tactic buried in company reports.
But when oil and jet fuel prices rocket, it can decide which airlines have enough breathing space to protect their summer schedules – and which are under pressure.
A plane lands at Brussels Airport in Belgium last Friday as the jet fuel crisis continues
Fuel costs typically account for 20 to 30 per cent of an airline’s operating expenses in normal conditions.
Jet2 – Britain’s third-largest airline – topped the table with a score of 91 out of 100, having already locked in around 85 per cent of its 2026 fuel supplies and no scheduling cuts announced.
The holiday airline also has £3.3billion in total cash and around £2billion in net cash.
A Jet2 spokesperson told the Mail: ‘This report recognises Jet2’s financial strength, strongly hedged position, and industry-leading excellence in taking people on their holidays without making cancellations.
Methodology: How the index was created
The My Flight Path index scores each airline on two components, drawn exclusively from publicly disclosed financial filings and operational data:
Fuel Score (60%): Blended full-year hedge coverage, using confirmed quarterly or half-year figures rather than summer-peak figures alone. Where airlines disclose coverage by half or quarter, these are averaged to produce a full-year blended percentage. The Fuel Score equals the blended coverage percentage, expressed as a number out of 100.
Schedule Score (40%): Flight capacity changes versus the pre-crisis planned schedule, based on confirmed public announcements. Score starts at 100.
Deductions: subsidiary or temporary suspensions only (1–5 routes): −15.
Multiple named route exits or meaningful capacity reduction: −30.
Significant network contraction (10–20 routes or major capacity cut): −45.
Severe network withdrawal (20+ routes, multi-year suspensions): −60.
Confirmed capacity growth of 5% or more adds +5 (capped at 100).
Financial health is not a scored dimension in this index. Airline balance sheets differ so substantially in size, structure, fiscal year-end and disclosure practice that a direct comparable metric does not exist. Where financial position materially affects the context – for example, a carrier with solid fuel hedges but a profit warning – this is noted in the airline’s individual analysis section.
All scores are calculated from the most recently available public disclosures as of May 2026. Hedge coverage percentages for Jet2, Ryanair, easyJet, Wizz Air and Norwegian are drawn from confirmed primary filings. TUI and Lufthansa figures use confirmed seasonal or annual disclosures. IAG/British Airways fuel data is reported at group level only — BA does not disclose its hedging position independently of its parent. Turkish Airlines hedge data is estimated from investor disclosures. The index measures protection levels based on disclosed data; it does not predict future operational decisions by any airline.
‘We have been very clear that we are looking forward to operating our scheduled programme of flights and holidays as normal this summer, meaning our customers can enjoy their well-deserved holidays.
‘As a strong, stable company with a long track record of being a consumer champion, we were the first airline and tour operator to announce that we will not introduce surcharges, and with fantastic value to be enjoyed right now, there has never been a better time to book one of our flights or holidays.’
Budget giant Ryanair is close behind at 89 out of 100, with approximately 82 per cent of its 2026 fuel hedged at £49 per barrel – among the cheapest locked-in rates of any carrier globally.
EasyJet (86 out of 100) also falls in the ‘well protected’ tier. The company has 84 per cent of its fuel hedged in the first half of 2026 and 70% in the second half of the year.
The declining hedge profile through the second half of the year is reflected in a score that sits below Ryanair and Jet2, but still comfortably in the low-risk tier.
The airline carries £602million in net cash and £4.8billion in total liquidity and has confirmed no schedule cuts.
Kenton Jarvis, CEO of easyJet, said: ‘I want our customers to book with confidence this summer.
‘We are operating as normal and are not making changes or cancellations and we are looking forward to taking millions of people on their well-deserved holidays this summer.’
TUI’s score of 84 out of 100 places it in the ‘well protected’ tier, reflecting a strong fuel hedging position and an absence of confirmed schedule cuts – the two primary inputs to this index.
Its score is slightly lower because forward bookings for summer 2026 are running around 7 per cent below the equivalent point last year.
A spokesman said the airline was ‘well prepared for the current summer season’ and ‘remain fully focused on ensuring that all holidays for our British guests go ahead as planned’.
Jono Oates, of My Flight Path, said: ‘The most striking finding in this index is not which airlines come bottom, it is which ones come top.
‘Jet2, Ryanair, easyJet and TUI, the four carriers operating more than half of all UK summer departures, occupy the top four positions and are all rated ‘well protected’.
‘Between them they will carry the majority of British holidaymakers this summer, and on the measure that matters most this season – how much of their fuel cost is locked in – they are materially better insulated than several of the larger international network carriers below them.
‘All four have locked in the majority of their 2026 fuel requirements at rates well below current spot prices, and none has announced schedule cuts for the summer.’
The risk of operating without adequate fuel protection is not hypothetical.
US airline Spirit Airlines ceased all operations earlier this month. leaving an estimated 600,000 passengers stranded and 17,000 workers without jobs.
The airline had hedged none of its fuel for the year in which prices more than doubled.
In the ‘moderately protected’ tier fall Air France-KLM (76), WizzAir (74), British Airways (65), Lufthansa (64) and Norwegian (62).
Air-France-KLM faces an additional £1.8billion fuel cost exposure in 2026 and has already made operational adjustments.
KLM cancelled 80 return flights in May but said this was ‘less than 1 per cent’ of its flight schedule.
The group’s subsidiary airline Transavia also cut flights, though Air France’s schedule has been broadly maintained.
A spokesperson said: ‘At this stage, Air France has no cancellations due to rising kerosene prices or shortages.’
Wizz Air, which issued a £43million profit warning in April, has a decent hedged fuel position but less of a financial cushion than its competitors.
British Airways’ score reflects a hedge position that weakens materially through the year, with an average annual figure of 62 per cent.
Parent company IAG expects to spend around £1.7billion more than planned on fuel this year, with total fuel costs forecast to reach £7.8billion.
Chief executive Luis Gallego last week warned how all airlines ‘need to increase fares in order to mitigate the impact’ of increased fuel prices.
A spokesperson said: ‘Our hedging strategy has protected the business from the shorter-term impact of the recent major increases in jet fuel prices.’
Lufthansa has among the highest fuel protection and is meaningfully insulated from the worst fuel price scenarios.
Yet its score sits near the bottom of the moderately protected tier because its fuel costs have already driven substantial schedule changes.
Lufthansa is removing 27 CityLine regional aircraft from its schedule, early-retiring A340-600s, and grounding some 747-400s with approximately 20,000 flights removed from the 2026 network.
Norwegian is near the bottom of the moderately protected tier because it has among the lowest fuel security, with just 43 per cent of its 2026 fuel currently locked in at lower prices.
State-backed Turkish Airlines (46/100) falls into the ‘less protected’ bracket.
The carrier has already suspended 23 international routes and cut over 100 weekly flights from May 2026 – the largest network reduction of any carrier in this index.
Some African routes have been halted to March 2027.
The rankings do not mean disruption is certain. But it does show which airlines have more financial firepower to absorb high fuel prices – and which have less room for error if costs rise again.
When prices stay high, airlines that bought fuel early at lower rates are protected. Those with less hedging may have to hike fares, add surcharges, cut weaker routes or trim schedules.
Mr Oates said: ‘The counterintuitive finding is that the airlines best known for cheap fares, rather than financial sophistication, turn out to be among the best protected this summer. Fuel hedging is unglamorous work, but right now it matters more than almost anything else an airline does.
‘The gap between top and bottom of this index is wider than most would expect. Airlines with less fuel protection aren’t necessarily going to cancel your flight, but they have a thinner cushion against further shocks.
‘A second fuel spike, an operational disruption, a bad weather season: those things land very differently on a carrier with 85 per cent of its fuel locked in than on one at 40 per cent.
‘People spend hours comparing fares before they book. This data is public – buried in annual reports that nobody outside the investment community reads. Translating it into something a family can check before they book is what this is about.’
Passengers should check whether their chosen airline has announced schedule changes on their route before booking.
Travellers are also advised to consider whether they are buying a flexible fare, especially when booking with an airline in the elevated-risk tier.
If a flight is cancelled, passengers are entitled to rerouting or a full refund. Financial compensation may also apply unless the airline can rely on extraordinary circumstances.
Those booking package holidays should check whether their trip is Atol-protected. Most UK package holidays are, meaning customers are financially protected if an airline or travel company fails.
Travel insurance covering airline failure or cancellation may also provide an extra layer of protection.
Full analysis: How the ten major airlines compare
1. Jet2 — 91/100 (Well Protected)
Britain’s third-largest airline by passengers carries an outsized hedge book and a balance sheet that rivals carriers twice its size. Jet2 has locked in approximately 85% of its 2026 fuel on a blended basis, with summer 2026 specifically covered at 87% at $707 per metric tonne – the highest confirmed summer coverage ratio in this index. As a predominantly summer leisure carrier, this figure effectively represents the airline’s core operating season. No schedule cuts have been announced; capacity is growing by 7.7%.
2. Ryanair — 89/100 (Well Protected)
Ryanair’s brand is built on stripped-back fares and ancillary charges. What receives less attention is the treasury operation running behind it. The airline runs one of the most disciplined fuel hedging programmes in commercial aviation, using a rolling forward contract strategy that consistently locks in costs well below spot prices. Ryanair has approximately 82% of its 2026 fuel hedged on a blended basis – 80% of its FY27 requirements (April 2026 onwards) locked in at about $67 per barrel ($528 per metric tonne), among the cheapest locked-in rates of any carrier globally. No schedule cuts have been announced; seat capacity is growing 6%.
3. EasyJet — 86/100 (Well Protected)
EasyJet runs a systematic hedging programme that covers both halves of the year, giving it a full-year blended position meaningfully ahead of many network carriers. EasyJet has 84% of its H1 2026 fuel hedged and 70% of H2, both at approximately $706 per metric tonne — giving a blended 77% for the full year. It carries £602million in net cash and £4.8billion in total liquidity and has confirmed no schedule cuts with seat capacity growing 3%.
4. TUI — 84/100 (Well Protected)
Tui’s score of 84/100 places it in the well protected tier, reflecting a strong fuel hedging position and an absence of confirmed schedule cuts – the two primary inputs to this index. Tui has hedged 83% of its summer 2026 jet fuel requirement, tapering to 62% for Winter 2026/27 – giving a blended full-year coverage of approximately 73%. No schedule reductions have been confirmed for summer 2026. The primary qualifier on Tui’s position is demand rather than supply: forward bookings for summer 2026 are running about 7% below the equivalent point last year, suggesting some softening of consumer confidence. This does not affect the airline’s fuel protection or its ability to operate its schedule as planned.
5. Air France-KLM — 76/100 (Moderately Protected)
Air France-KLM enters summer with a stronger financial position than its score might initially suggest. The group holds €10.6billion in total liquidity as of Q1 2026 – above its own target range of €6-8billion – and generated €884million in positive operating cash flow in Q1. The moderate score reflects a hedging position that declines steeply through the year. Air France-KLM has disclosed a blended full-year 2026 coverage of about 70%, but the quarterly profile is uneven: approximately 70% in Q1–Q2, falling to 60% in Q3 and 50% in Q4. The Q2 effective price is $1,260 per metric tonne — significantly above levels locked in by the UK low-cost carriers. An additional $2.4billion fuel cost exposure in 2026 has driven operational adjustments: KLM has suspended Middle East routes through May and made reductions to its Transavia subsidiary, though mainline Air France’s schedule has been broadly maintained.
6. Wizz Air — 74/100 (Moderately Protected)
Wizz Air’s score of 74/100 places it at the top of the moderately protected tier. Its summer 2026 fuel position is stronger than its full-year figure suggests — the airline has publicly confirmed 70% summer coverage at approximately $700 per metric tonne — but the blended full-year FY27 position (covering April 2026 onwards) is approximately 57%, reflecting lower coverage in the second half of the year. On schedule, Wizz Air is one of the most expansionary carriers in this index: summer 2026 capacity is growing by approximately 17%, driven by its Central and Eastern European network. No route cuts have been confirmed. The financial context warrants noting: a €50million profit warning was issued in April 2026, with full-year guidance pointing to effectively breakeven profitability. Morningstar has assessed Wizz Air as carrying the lowest margin buffer of any carrier in this index. These factors do not affect the scored components – fuel hedging and schedule stability – but they indicate that the airline’s operational delivery has less financial cushion behind it than the score alone reflects.
7. British Airways — 65/100 (Moderately Protected)
British Airways’ parent group IAG reported Q1 2026 operating profit up 77% to €351million despite an expected €2billion increase in full-year fuel costs — a result the group attributed in large part to its hedging programme and fare recovery. BA’s score reflects a hedge position that weakens materially through the year. The IAG group is 75% hedged in Q1, falling to 64% in Q2, 58% in Q3 and 50% in Q4 — a blended annual figure of approximately 62%. Note that fuel hedging is reported at IAG group level; BA does not disclose its position independently. The 70% ‘rest of year’ figure cited in some group disclosures refers to the post-Q1 period only and overstates the full-year blended coverage. On schedule, BA has made more substantial adjustments than many carriers in this index: permanent route exits from Jeddah, Cologne, Riga and Stuttgart; temporary suspension of Dubai, Amman, Bahrain and Tel Aviv services through May; and overall capacity growth reduced to +1–2%.
8. Lufthansa — 64/100 (Moderately Protected)
Lufthansa’s score illustrates a distinction this index is designed to capture: the difference between fuel protection and schedule resilience. With approximately 80% of its 2026 fuel hedged on a blended basis — among the highest ratios in this index — Lufthansa is meaningfully insulated from the worst fuel price scenarios. Yet its score sits near the bottom of the moderately protected tier. The scale of the fuel cost increase — an additional €1.7 billion in 2026 despite that hedging — has driven substantial schedule action. Lufthansa is removing 27 CityLine regional aircraft from its schedule, early-retiring A340-600s, and grounding some 747-400s. Overall ASK growth has been cut from a planned 4% to 0–2%, with approximately 20,000 flights removed from the 2026 network. Named permanent route exits include Bydgoszcz, Rzesżów and Stavanger; short-haul services from Frankfurt and Munich have been significantly thinned. Passengers on affected short-haul and regional routes should check whether their specific service is among those already removed from the schedule. Those on Lufthansa’s long-haul network are largely unaffected, as the capacity reductions are concentrated in lower-margin short-haul flying.
9. Norwegian — 62/100 (Moderately Protected)
Norwegian enters the season with approximately 43% of its 2026 fuel hedged on a blended basis — among the lowest ratios in this index. Q2 specifically is 42% covered at $679 per metric tonne, with the second half at around 43% and 2027 at just 22%. It is the airline’s low hedge ratio — not its schedule — that places it near the bottom of the moderately protected tier. On schedule, Norwegian’s picture is more positive: summer 2026 capacity is growing by 5–6%, with the airline’s principal confirmed changes limited to the cancellation of its Dubai service and the postponement of planned Tel Aviv and Beirut routes. Q1 2026 operating results showed genuine progress, with the operating loss improving to NOK −220 million from NOK −611 million in the prior year, supported by hedging gains, a record Q1 load factor of 87.6%, and a 22% fall in fuel costs year-on-year.
10. Turkish Airlines — 46/100 (Less Protected)
Turkish Airlines presents a mixed picture. The carrier posted a strong Q1 2026: revenue of $5.9 billion (+21% year-on-year) and net profit of $226 million — one of the best quarterly performances among the airlines in this index. It benefits from state backing and a large, young fleet averaging 9.8 years. However, Turkish Airlines has suspended 23 international routes and cut over 100 weekly flights from May 2026 — the largest network reduction of any carrier in this index. Some African routes, including Juba, Kinshasa and Luanda, are suspended to March 2027, making these effectively multi-year withdrawals rather than temporary measures. Turkish Airlines does not publish granular hedging data, but management confirmed in the Q1 2026 earnings call that the airline is hedging approximately 40% of fuel consumption and is not continuing its regular hedging policy — adding contracts opportunistically rather than through systematic forward coverage.
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